India Commercial Banking Report

May, 2016   |   83  Pages   |   BMI Commercial Banking   |   Format : PDF

BMIs commercial banking forecast series covers 62 countries accounting for 80% of global GDP. Each report, researched at source, features BMIs independent assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2017 for the commercial banking sector in each market. Using its expertise in both country risk and financial markets analysis, BMI has created exclusive models to forecast a wealth of key variables on the commercial banking sector. Historic and forecast data are provided for the sectors total asset and liability growth, client loans, and client deposits. Forecasts for key ratios including the loan-deposit ratio and the loan-asset ratio are also included, as well as core macro-economic forecasts. Data is presented in both local currency and US dollar terms.

Each report examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment.

Central to BMIs analysis are our unique Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings. BMIs unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rating provides a clear, quantified, independent assessment of the opportunities and dangers of operating in each market. The methodology draws together our in-depth knowledge of competitive pressures, our comprehensive industry market forecasts, and our Country Risk tea

BMI Industry View . 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators        . . . 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, January 2016     . . . . . 7
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%)       7
Table: Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016       . 8
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020      . . . 8
SWOT .. 9
Commercial Banking  9
Political ..... 11
Economic ... 13
Operational Risk ... 15
Industry Forecast  17
Industry Trend Analysis .... 17
Table: Small Savings Schemes Interest Rate Cut        . 17
Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index . 22
Asia Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index ..... 22
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index       . . 23
Market Overview . 24
GDP By Expenditure ........ 24
Table: Manufacturing And Utilities Powering Ahead       . . 26
Asia Commercial Banking Outlook ......... 29
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2014. 29
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios, 2016   30
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (USDbn)  . . . . 30
Table: Comparison of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2016       31
Competitive Landscape  33
Market Structure ... 33
Protagonists ........ 33
Table: Protagonists In India's Commercial Banking Sector      . 33
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe ......... 33
List Of Banks ....... 34
Table: Public Sector Banks . . . . 34
Table: Foreign Banks In India . 35
Company Profile .. 37
Bank of Baroda ..... 37
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 38
Table: Balance Sheet (INRmn) . . 39
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 39
Table: Key Ratios (%)  . . . . 39
HDFC Bank ......... 40
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 42
Table: Balance Sheet (INRmn) . . 42
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 42
Table: Key Ratios (%)  . . . . 43
ICICI Bank . 44
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 46
Table: Balance Sheet (INRmn) . . 46
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 47
Table: Key Ratios (%)  . . . . 47
Punjab National Bank ...... 48
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 50
Table: Balance Sheet (INRmn) . . 50
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 50
Table: Key Ratios (%)  . . . . 51
State Bank of India . 52
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 54
Table: Balance Sheet (INRmn) . . 54
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 54
Table: Key Ratios (%)  . . . . 55
Regional Overview ........ 56
Industry Trend Analysis .... 56
Global Industry Overview ........ 62
Industry Forecast .. 62
The Reserves Penalty ...... 62
Mixed Results So Far ...... 65
Not Far Enough, Or Too Far Already? ... 70
In The End, Negative Rates Unlikely To Become Much More Prevalent  71
Table: Negative Interest Rates - Summary         . . 73
Demographic Forecast . 74
Table: Population Headline Indicators (India 1990-2025)      . . 75
Table: Key Population Ratios (India 1990-2025)        75
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (India 1990-2025)    . . 76
Table: Population By Age Group (India 1990-2025)       . . . 76
Table: Population By Age Group % (India 1990-2025)       77
Methodology ........ 79
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 79
Sector-Specific Methodology ...... 80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 81
Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index Indicators      . 82
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 83

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